Each week as we move ever closer to the playoffs, I will lay out what it will take for each team to make the playoffs and who they may face early in week 10.
Division 1
Monroe Trojans (3-5)
Monroe sitting at 3-5, did what they had to do. Huge game vs Riverview to give them an outside shot at the playoffs.
Potential week 10 opponent: Dearborn, Saline, Belleville, AA Huron, Woodhaven
Division 2
Bedford Mules (6-2)
Kicking Mules held serve in week 8. Win and most likely get a home game in week 10.
Potential week 10 opponent: Farmington, Crestwood, Franklin.
Division 3
Carlson (7-1)
The Marauders will be hosting in week 10. Who will it be? Most likely SG Anderson.
Potential Week 10 opponent: NB Huron, Anderson.
NB Huron (5-3)
With the loss to rival Flat Rock, Huron has put themselves in a must win situation. A win over D2 Crestwood would assure the Chiefs of making the playoffs. A trip to Trenton is most likely.
Potential Week 10 opponent: Trenton, Carlson
Division 4
Airport (6-2)
The Jets took care of business in week 8. I don’t think Airport has too much trouble with Robichaud and qualify for the playoffs. Who the Jets play in week 10 is still up in the air. It all depends on Adrian. If the Maples win, it could shake up the districts. I will explain more in the Riverview section.
Potential week 10 opponent: Riverview, Chelsea, Tecumseh.
Milan (2-6)
The Big reds will miss the playoffs in 2022. Even if they were to win out, I do not think that will be enough.
Riverview (8-0)
Lots to unfold here. As mentioned under Airport, Adrian is a big player here as to which district the Pirates will be in. If Adrian wins, and I think they will, Riverview could head north with Union and DDC and most likely open at home vs DDC. The MHSAA could go another route if Adrian wins, bouncing Chelsea west and creating a district of Tecumseh, Riverview, Airport, Adrian. So we will just have to stand by. Riverview is also in a battle for a #1 seed. If in Union’s district, they should hold the 1 spot with a win over Monroe. If in Tecumseh district, I think View is a 2 seed.
Potential week 10 opponent: Airport, Divine Child, Chelsea, Garden City
Division 5
Dundee (6-2)
Dundee is squarely in the playoffs. The backyard brawl vs Ida could mean a home game for the Vikings depending on what Flat Rock, GI and Summit do in week 9. Potential Week 10 opponent: Flat Rock, Grosse Ile, Summit, Country Day
Flat Rock (5-3)
Rams are in. Who they play and where is now the question. Back to back enormous wins for the Rams have put them in a spot to maybe host a playoff game. The Rams need to win, and hope for all their previous opponents to win as well. Week 9 Livonia is no slouch, can the Rams get 3 big wins in a row and play a home game in week 10? Something I thought impossible just 2 weeks ago. Who are the Rams and Dundee for that matter, really really pulling for?… Grosse Ile. Could mean a much better district for all. Also, a #1 seed is possible for Flat Rock if things play out a certain way.
Potential week 10 opponents: Dundee, Denby, Summit, Country Day, GI
Grosse Ile (4-4)
Grosse Ile needs to win.. period. If they can beat Henry Ford, I believe they are a 4 seed and maybe travel to Flat Rock, Summit or Dundee in week 10. Lose and GI is out.
Potential week 10 opponents: Dundee, Flat Rock, Summit, Country Day.
Jefferson (1-7)
The Bears have no path to the playoffs.
Division 6
Ida (3-5)
All or nothing for the Bluestreaks. Big rival Dundee awaits in the Backyard Brawl. If they win, they are in. Hard to tell what district they would be in. I assume the district would include some Detroit area teams and maybe Clinton. Ida and Dundee are both hoping Clinton beats Hudson. More playoff points to be had.
Possible week 10 opponents: Clinton, Ecorse, Detroit Prep, Lutheran Westland.
Division 7
Erie Mason (5-3)
The Eagles may need to win in week 9 vs Jefferson. A loss and they will be very very close to missing. Mason would very likely open on the road to Detroit Central.
Potential week 10 opponents: Detroit Central, SMCC, Liggett.
SMCC (3-5)
The Falcons should have a home game win or lose in week 10. Opponent will most likely be Liggett.
Potential Week 10 opponent: Liggett, Erie Mason, Detroit Central.
Division 8
Summerfield (4-4)
The Bulldogs come up with a huge win in week 8 putting them just barely in the playoffs as we stand. Win and in, lose and out. I think Summerfield pulls it out in week 9, passes Addison in seeding, and travels to Richard week 10.
Potential week 10 opponent: Whiteford, Addison
Whiteford (8-0)
Whiteford is in. Home games abound. Potential week 10 opponent: Summerfield, Addison, Everest, Richard.
**It is important to note, none of the above is 100% factual. I did the best I could using other sites and my brain. Which doesn’t always work properly. Having said this, I am very confident with what is laid out. Good luck to everyone!
If Allen Park beats Southgate this week and both are 5-4, are they both in? And would they both have more points that a 6-3 Huron?
Both in.
And I believe they both would have more points than Huron. Would be rather close however.
Gary, do you think Grosse ile will brat Henry Ford and If they do, they will make
the playoffs
I’m going with yes I think they will beat Ford. Should be a good game however.
I have them making it if they do win.
Snooze2you has View in with Tecumseh, Airport and Chelsea. It will be interesting how this plays out. Riverview will be a 1 or 2 depending on the district.
Correct… if Adrian wins.. somebody I believe has to go.
And if you are a View fan, I wonder who you would rather be matched up with.
DDC in the first round is tough. Union is no slouch either but I think that game would be home.
In the other district it would be traveling to Tecumseh, if you get by the Jets.
Both pretty tough. I guess you just play the hand your dealt and go from there.
Doesnt look like any real advantage either way you go.
Riverview will end up with more playoff points than Tecumseh.
I’m not so sure.
Of their opponents:
MC – Win
Pink – win
Adrian – win
Jackson – toss up
Livonia – toss up
If they get 4 wins from their previous 8 opponents, I think Tecumseh holds on.
I didnt do the numbers on this possibility, I guess I could.
But at first glance, it looks like Tecumseh may hold on.
edit: I ran 10 simulations using Goosepoop, Tecumseh was ahead of View all 10 times. Some were very close however.
edit 2.0: I ran the numbers for both View and Tecumseh..
I gave every opponent View has faced a win in week 9. Of course this may not happen.
Riverview – 61.556
For Tecumseh, I gave only 3 wins for their previous opponents.
Tecumseh – 62.911
It doesnt look to me that View can catch Tecumseh.
Did you give Riverview the 60 points they’ll get for beating Monroe? I have them finishing with 64.78
Yes
43.889 playoff points
Plus
17 and change bonus points
That is what I had.
Maybe you didn’t increase the divider each time. Games played will be 9.
You are right. I may have fat fingered things a bit. View can pass everyone for a district 1 seed.
Anonymous. It all depends on the teams they played. If everybody Riverview played loses. Than maybe not Bonus points Plays into everything.
In D3 Brother Rice has 3 win total point of 48.. and rank at 21. huron has 5 wins 42 points sitting at 34.
That’s why we need everyone in huron league to win
Huron Fan.
in Div 8 you mention that Summerfield could play Richard in week 10 is that Riverview Richard or Ann Arbor Richard
Riverview.
Ann Arbor is in a different division.
Ok Gary so let me get this straight, you’re saying if Adrian wins then Riverview could be in a district with DDC and Union. In that scenario would Airport be in Riverview’s district or with Tecumseh/Adrian/Chelsea?
I think it it would be:
Tecumseh
Chelsea
Airport
Adrian
Or
Tecumseh
Riverview
Airport
Adrian
Got it. Thanks Gary
Gary. If Huron and Allen park both win. Are you thinking the four teams would be Carlson Trenton Huron Allen park?
Huron Fan
If Huron and AP both make it, AP will go north.
If a team not currently in(Huron) makes it in, that means somebody will have to drop out.
I bet that team would be Waverly and or Detroit Ren. Both replaced by Huron and Sparta.
Just my guess.
Gary also Detroit Henry Ford. We need GI to win that would
Help Huron big time. Sparta plays a D5 school with 1 win. If we win out we should have something like 51 points. Last year a team was in with 42 points.
Huron league teams need to win. Help everybody.
Huron Dad
Loyola any factor for cc? if they win they are in i feel could shake things up
Would depend on Erie Mason. If Mason and Loyola make it, that could push a detroit school north.
If Loyola makes it and Erie doesnt, Loyola would replace Erie.
If I had to wager, I would bet the D7 field is set.
But I wouldnt bet much.
Only team I am worried about is Burton Bendle.
I think they lose, but should still sneak in.
Will be close with them and Mason. If both lose.
Bedford will get an automatic win in week 9. Their opponent already forfeited. Which is disappointing being that it would have been senior night. They at least get D1 points for the forfeit.
Hello! I’m new to the High School football playoffs and am trying to understand how it works. I am wondering how is a school like Flat Rock in at 5-3 but then New Boston Huron at 5-3 is a must win at Crestwood? SMCC at 3-5 is in but Ida, also 3-5, has a must win against Dundee?
Go to the MHSAA website and search for the playoff point breakdown.
If you are new to this, it can be confusing.
Bottom line is Flat Rock is Division 5(lower enrolment) and Huron is Division 3(higher enrolment) and basically played the same schedule.
It takes more playoff points to qualify for D3 than D5. In very general terms. 5 wins garnered FR enough playoff points to make it in D5, conversely, 5 wins has not garnered Huron enough for D3.
SMCC(D7) plays a tougher schedule than Ida(D6), in terms of division, thus requiring less wins to obtain the requisite playoff points to qualify for D7.
I hope this helps.
Confused.
Simple. MHSAA. Point system.
Nice job Gary!
Yes, great job!
Appreciate the study and info!