D1
Monroe has what will most likely be a very tough district. Possible teams will be Fordson, Saline, Belleville, Woodhaven. Escape from that gauntlet and the likes of Cass Tech most likely awaits. Best case, win out and maaaaybe get a home game. Although at 8-1 it is very possible they do not get a home game. This week vs Saline will be a playoff type game which will be a nice prep for the playoffs. I would anticipate Coach Notario is treating it as such.
D2
Bedford, if they win out, they are in. I have them near the 60 playoff point mark at 5-4 and that should be enough. Possible playoff match-ups are Wyandotte, Crestwood, Franklin, Detroit MLK.
D3
Riverview will be in a district with the downriver schools. View must win out to get a home game. They will open with AP(the original AP), either home or away. Then a rematch most likely awaits with OAC. From there Rouge will most likely be there waiting. Are these games winnable? I think so. Win out.. stay healthy and lean on last year’s experience both as players and coaching staff.
Carlson is in a position if they win out, to host 3 home playoff games. They, like Riverview, will be in the district full of teams from downriver. Probable opponents, Trenton, Allen Park, Riverview, River Rouge. I like the Maurader’s chances here. Round 2 vs Riverview is definitely a possibility. I think both teams would welcome this T vs T showdown.
D4
Milan’s possible district may include Farmington Hills Harrison. They are on the border currently of D3 and 4. Other possible match-ups include Country Day, Cranbrook and Cody. That is a winnable district especially if FHH moves up to D3. Win out and a home game is possible.
room for error with games at Milan and home against Tecumseh to close out the
regular season.
short, the Jets have a shot if they win out, but they could use some help to
give them a better chance. Jets’ fans should be rooting for teams like Monroe,
Flat Rock, and SMCC to win out, as wins by those teams will provide much-needed
bonus points.
Airport wins out, their playoff point average will be at least 50.668. The
lowest total in Class B last season was 50.333 by Madison Heights Lamphere.
The highest the Jets could have is 51.779.
Opponents: Detroit Country Day, Milan, Cody
D5
Grosse Ile, win out and the island may see 3 home playoff games, which would be huge. Possible early round match-ups are, Osborne, Denby, Harper Woods, Robichaud, Marine City, Lutheran North. Denby and HW are tough contests but are winnable. I like GI’s chances here, this week vs View will be a great playoff type atmosphere and should prepare both teams well. Something of note, GI currently sits at the very top of D5, it is very likely they move up to D4.
Streaks host Onsted and travel to Blissfield to end the regular season.
Blue Streaks aren’t likely to get much more in terms of bonus points from the
non conference opponents, as Jefferson is headed toward a winless season, and
Lake Fenton would have to pull a huge upset over Williamston or Jackson. Ida’s
best LCAA win right now is over Dundee, so even though fans may not like it,
rooting for Dundee to win out helps Ida. A win over a six-win Blissfield team
would help towards seeding.
a remote possibility, but it’s highly likely Ida starts on the road.
Possible
Opponents: Lansing Catholic, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Almont, Macomb
Lutheran North, Marine City, Ovid-Elsie, Grosse Ile, Detroit Osborn, Detroit
Denby
Airport, they need to win their final games against Erie Mason and at Hillsdale.
hurts the Vikings is weak non conference opponents. Ann Arbor Huron looks
headed to another winless season, and Stockbridge has only one winnable game
left against Parchment. That means slim pickings in terms of bonus points. The
Vikings wins in LCAA play don’t offer much help either, as Hudson and Onsted
are expected to finish 3-6.
short, a projected playoff point average of 44.558 (with five wins) won’t be
enough to get them in the Division 5 bracket. The vikings will have win out,
and that means pulling off a huge upset at Hillsdale, to get six wins and an
automatic bid. That would give them a projected PPA of 50.780.
Opponents: Grosse Ile, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Almont, Ida
D7
SMCC is in line for possibly 2 home playoff games. Possible early round match-ups include, Cabrini, Riverview Richard, Sand Creek. An interesting aspect of D7 this year is whether or not Whiteford will be in the division. As we sit now, they are in D7 and could be a district final foe for the Falcons. I think most want to see that game. That is something to keep an eye on.
D7/8
Bobcats have already clinched at 7-0, and finish out the season with a visit
from Clinton and a trip to Britton-Deerfield.
bulk of Whiteford’s bonus points is coming from a win over Blissfield, and more
are likely on the way with a win over Clinton. Having one of either Sand Creek
or Summerfield win out would be a benefit as well. Bobcat fans should be
rooting for Blissfield to beat Ida in Week 9.
good news: I fully expect Whiteford to win out and reach a PPA of 76.444, which
would all but guarantee home-field advantage through the District round. The
bad news: Whiteford is expected to be moved up to a more rugged Division 7. The
road to a repeat looks a lot tougher.
Gabriel Richard, Madison Heights Bishop Foley, Sand Creek, SMCC.
D8
4-3, the Bulldogs need a win to stay alive. They close the season with a visit
from Sand Creek and travel to Morenci.
doesn’t have much in terms of bonus points, as Erie Mason has won one game all
season, and a loss to Pittsford will only provide a maximum bonus point average
of 0.778. The Bulldogs’ best win in TCC play is currently Whitmore Lake, who I
expect to finish 4-5. A win over Adrian Madison will get a few more bonus
points, but not much.
Friday’s game against Sand Creek looms large for the Bulldogs. A loss, and
their PPA can from 38.447 to 38.558, which could be enough to get them in the
Division 8 bracket. A win, and that jumps to a projection of 47.668 to 47.779.
The Bulldogs would be better suited winning out.
Opponents: Pittsford, Lenawee Christian, Reading, Detroit Public Safety Academy, Whiteford.
Could MHS beat Woodhaven? Maybe…but they will not beat any other teams that you mentioned…that…is for sure.
If the enrollment continues to dwindle the Catholic League or TCC would be a good option.
and where would SMCC go? The LCAA or TCC isn't going to take them. Catholic league would not be good for other sports. Independent would be a nightmare.
As for the downriver league vs Huron. I really think the top 4 DR and the top 4 Huron are all pretty equal. I think the talent is pretty equal with a slight edge to Carlson who has had a rare thing in back to back classes with D1 kids. But overall anyone of those teams could beat anyone on any given night.
With open enrollment. Not a bad idea.
SMCC should leave the Huron League and Trenton should join. All Public school league then. Apples to Apples.
LOLOLOLOLOL. Whiteford is defending state champs. SMCC is a long way from that possibility this year. Whiteford would definitely beat SMCC.
I think people forgot why the downriver league formed. The mega had school traveling all over metro Detroit and at the time gas prices were almost $4 a gallon. Downriver league was formed to keep travel minimal because busing was so expensive. Zero chance Trenton ever leaves.
What Chris said plus you get 1 point for every win the teams you lose to have. That too is divided by 9.
So what your saying is it would be better for Riverview to go to the DRL and beat up on those teams to get more PP??
I know you’ve seen that league it’s beyond bad except for a couple of decent teams
Do you get 80 points for beating a class a team plus another eight points for every win that team has. You only get 64 points for beating a class B team and then 8 points for every win that they have. The numbers are then divided by nine for a playoff point average. There’s some other intricacies here and there but they only mean another point or so
So if View wins out finishes 8-1
Wyandotte beats Carlson they finish 7-2
We won’t jump them in PP???
The downriver league is beyond bad, Southgate LP, Edsel Ford, would lose to most Jv teams
Taylor is terrible, Wyandotte trenton woodhaven are all decent
So how would they get some many points?
Trenton fits well in league. Think swimming, track, baseball, all the other sports. I can’t imagine Trenton leaving. They are competitive, never have more than a 15 min drive to any game. Imagine Trenton going to Jefferson for tennis but not going to Woodhaven. Makes no sense.
Another rumor out there is Trenton with a low downriver enrollment has wanted in the Huron league for a long time-problem is no one wants out – so huron adds trenton and one more and downriver now has what they want an opener and closer of their choice and the Huron league schedule is set -no more whining about people not wanting to play certain teams
some people in the know say that one of the downriver requirements is that their has to be a bordering school who is a member of downriver league to be considered- I am not a geography expert by no means but i wonder if that is another strike against da Rouge
Currently SMCC sits 2nd from the top of D7. I expect them to stay in 7 but I suppose it is possible. All depends on who wins these games all over the state.
I've got SMCC as the smallest division 6 team and going on the road to BCC.
Rouge wouldn't be a good fit in the DRL for many reasons. They actually have some of the same issues (nothing bad) that Melvidale has and that what makes them a bad fit. I personally think Huron would be the best option in the DRL as I think they will remain Class A-ish for a while.
Rouge originally wanted to be in the Driver league but the power brokers at the top did not want them primarily because of their basketball dominance. So they made the requirement that you needed a JV team certain sports. Therefore that made rouge ineligible. I bet there have been some small olive branches behind the scenes to measure Riverviews interest. Riverviews geographic location fits well. But River would be one if the smaller scrolls in the Druver league.
I don't see the Downriver League picking up another team anytime soon. Although scheduling for their league in football will be tough for those with other than the week 1 or week 9 openings. Not sure in Melvindale leaving caught them by surprise, but I would think the Downriver League would keep any expansion on the down low as to control who they picked up.
Nothing will happen with the Huron League unless SMCC's enrollment continues to decline or Huron's blows up. SMCC's enrollment has been on a steady 1-5% decline for the last 5 years. They are down 110 students since 2013. SMCC remains competitive in everything because a large number of their student population participates in athletics Huron his headed the other way and has steadily grown 1-3% during the same time period and is up 65 students since 2013. While Huron has open enrollment, it's growth can be attributed to the late 90's early 2000's housing boom in the school district. Those families that moved in have school aged children headed to the high school ages. Riverview continues to hover around the 900 student mark, but relies heavily on open enrollment students.
correct the Dale is leaving the league
but the problem is u cant just leave week one open with an odd number of teams
the dotte has week one open and the woo has week 9 other than that that teams are scrambling to find weeks 2-8 which isnt easy
Melvindale is definitely leaving the DRL and the league is leaving 1 week open to fill with out of league matchups. DRL schools are already working to fill the open week on their schedule for next season.
Although it looks like Airport would be in D4 this year. So that would effect GI if they end up in D4. They are are on the border of 4 and 5 currently. We wont know until after week 9.
Its possible the MHSAA would put Rouge in with View and AP but I think they will go with the Detroit schools. It's hard to tell what the selection committee will do. Airport could play a roll in who goes where as well. If they win out they are in.
For those that dont know, When the 256 teams are chosen and then divided into 8-32 team divisions by enrollment, the MHSAA places pins on a board where the schools are. They dont know who the schools are, they are just pins. They then place teams into districts based on geographic vicinity. They do not take into account playoff points or state rankings or anything of the sort.
Ok Gary…
Is there any chance Rouge gets in with Riverview, Trenton, Carlson, Allen park, crew. Rouge might be closer to Riverview than Carlson? And somehow Carlson goes south or west?
5:10am
Last year's View team was one of the better teams in the last 30 years in HL history in my opinion. Can you count on that talent year in and year out? I know some don't think home games matter, but to me they do and/or at least can.
When I started all this talk about View maybe being at a disadvantage, I was just thinking out loud really. I dont want anyone to leave the league. I was just throwing out some chatter to see what people thought. It's kinda what we do here.
With the talent coming in at View and Coach Mac being a good coach, I can see View as a playoff mainstay for a long time. As long as Giarmo is at Carlson, I can say the same about them. Throw in Allen Park and Trenton, and you can see where I am coming from when I say those teams all have a playoff point advantage over View. That's how all this started for me.
Melvindale is going to the western Wayne conference next year.
Possible play off points regarding Riverview and their probable playoff opponents.
View 8-1 = 87.8 PP
View 7-2 = 74.62 PP
Allen Park 7-2 = 85.84 PP
Trenton 6-3 = 70.94 PP
If View wins out, I am going to assume they have a home game vs AP.
If View goes 7-2 they will play at AP.
Hope I answered your questions.
It doesn’t really matter if we have to play on the road
Last year we went to Carlson won by 30 went to DC won
It’s like a home game for us with the maroon monsoon and alumni packing the stands
10:29 I've heard melvindale plans to leave the DR league and that's where the rumors of view leaving the HL come in
Why are all these Mega league people so concerned all the time about robbing from the Huron League? It ain't gonna happen.
Isn’t someone leaving the downriver league?? Melvinfale?? Can’t remember who has already said their out.
What other league do you think Riverview could go to? Do you think it’s possible the DR league could be split like back in the day when it was split? Because as it sits now, the DR league is full
Yes! Finally something about med school.
Interesting this is coming up. I mentioned the idea that being in the HL will hurt View in football being a class A school and playing all smaller class schools.
I got shut down by many view folks rather quickly. But as you can see it in fact does hurt them in terms of home playoff games.
To answer your question. It’s not who you lose to, it’s who you beat. I looked at this earlier and in my write up I wrote that View will most likely play AP in week 10. I’ll take a closer look in the morning to see if AP at 7-2 will have more PP than View at 8-1.
Allen park will finish 7-2
Carlson either 8-1 or 7-2 with losses to D1 or D2 Woodhaven and Wyandotte
Trenton likely 6-3
Riverview 8-1 or 7-2
With Riverview playing so many schools smaller then them and Trenton losing to all equal or bigger schools, could a 6-3 Trenton jump a 7-2 riverview for the 3 spot, therefore a Carlson vs Riverview in week 1? I think no matter what Carlson has that #1 seed kicked up. Even if Riverview is 8-1 and Carlson is 7-2.
Any wisdom appreciated.
Heck of a breakdown guys. Keep up the good work. EM
Whiteford and SMCC match up well. You have Murphy and Cousino, Eitniear and Marino, Lake and Ritchie, Mosinski and Bogdanski. Your players your players equal. The game lies in the hands of the ends Flint and Gullen, if White Ford takes them out of the equation, White Ford wins. Don't stop them, SMCC wins.
If Jefferson loses to CC 1st round on me dry 32 Taps Friday night.
Cmon Troll get a clue will you please, everybody beats up on them teams..
Your best athlete 2:26 won't beat CC, trust me…CC is going to pound you in the trenches.
SMCC better worry about the Bears. We love spoiling your plans. We get our best athlete back just in time for you. So plan on finishing 5-4 and being on the road for the playoffs. Which if that turns out to be Whiteford, bye bye!
The bears
Whiteford would roll over every one in D8 but would do well just to make it out of a district in D7 let alone win it all.
Huge difference between D8 and D7. I can make a case where the D7 heavy weights this year could win D5.
Have any of the people throwing dumb comments out there about Whiteford seen them play? I’m telling you this-they handled Airport and Ida in the scrimmage at Grass Lake this year. I couldn’t imagine what they would do to us or Ida in a game. Whiteford is bigger, faster, and stronger than SMCC. I would love to see Whiteford get a shot at SMCC.
You are welcome, Frank did half of them… the ones with the most data and numbers!
You’re he Joe Lunardi of HS football! Thank you for this!
Smcc still would beat Whiteford with its injuries..
I would have loved to see SMCC and Whiteford play at the beginning of the season. The game would still be a great contest, but the Falcons have a lot of injuries to work through and have thus far!! Go Falcons!!