Each week as we move ever closer to the playoffs, I will lay out what it will take for each team to make the playoffs and who they may face early in week 10.
Division 1
Monroe Trojans (2-4)
Monroe sitting at 2-4 would most likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Not an easy task given their schedule in weeks 7 and 9. There is a much slimmer chance if they were to lose to Dexter and win out from there, finishing 4-5. They would be right at the edge of of the 32 rank they need. It would be VERY close. Best case again, win out and the Trojans are in.
Potential week 10 opponent: Dearborn, Saline, Belleville, AA Huron.
Division 2
Bedford Mules (4-2)
Bedford is in a great spot to make the playoffs. They should go 2-1 on the way out, which would guarantee them a week 10 opponent.
Potential week 10 opponent: Farmington, Crestwood, Franklin.
Division 3
Carlson (5-1)
Carlson is in great shape. They could lose out and still be in. I don’t see that happening however.
Potential Week 10 opponent: NB Huron, Anderson.
NB Huron (4-2)
Huron finds themselves in a great spot to make the playoffs. I just don’t see them missing.
Potential Week 10 opponent: Trenton, Anderson, Carlson
Division 4
Airport (5-1)
Airport needs to win 2 of their last games. Milan becomes a big game in week 8. If they lose to View and Milan, Airport will be flirting with the last few spots to make it in. Potential week 10 opponent: Riverview, Chelsea, Tecumseh.
Milan (1-5)
The Big reds will miss the playoffs in 2022. Even if they were to win out, I do not think that will be enough.
Riverview (6-0)
The Pirates are in the playoffs. Win out and a couple home games are in the cards.
Potential week 10 opponent: Airport, Tecumseh, Divine Child, Garden City.
Division 5
Dundee (5-1)
Dundee needs to win one of their remaining games or they could be on the outside looking in. All 3 remaining games are good matchups. Buckle up Viking fans. Potential Week 10 opponent: Flat Rock, Grosse Ile, Summit.
Flat Rock (3-3)
This week’s game against GI is huge. The winner is in. The loser has a lot of work to do. The Rams need 1 more win. If you look at their schedule, I think the game against GI is their best chance.
Potential week 10 opponents: Dundee, Denby, Summit, Country Day.
Grosse Ile (4-2)
The Red Devils are in the exact same boat as Flat Rock. They need a win. Lose out and they are out. Tough schedule in the last 3.
Potential week 10 opponents: Dundee, Denby, Summit, Country Day.
Jefferson (1-5)
The Bears have no path to the playoffs.
Division 6
Ida (2-4)
Ida already having played many of their tough games, are in good shape to make the playoffs . Starting 0-4, things looked bleak, but winning 2 of their remaining 3 will get them in. Potential week 10 opponents: Clinton, Ecorse, Durand, Lutheran Westland.
Division 7
Erie Mason (5-1)
The Eagles need to win 1 of their remaining games to make it in. I see them doing that, although it wont be easy. This week is huge vs Madison. Win and in. Lose and week 10 vs the Bears is for all the marbles.
Potential week 10 opponents: Detroit Central, SMCC, Liggett.
SMCC (2-4)
SMCC is very likely in with 2 wins. 3 is a guarantee. Potential Week 10 opponent: Liggett, Erie Mason, Detoit Central.
Division 8
Summerfield (2-4)
Summerfield may need to win out. Winning 2 of 3 puts them right at the border of making it or not.
Potential week 10 opponent: Whiteford, Addison.
Whiteford (6-0)
Whiteford is in. Potential week 10 opponent: Summerfield, Addison, Everest, Richard.
**It is important to note, none of the above is 100% factual. I did the best I could using other sites and my brain. Which doesn’t always work properly. Having said this, I am very confident with what is laid out. Good luck to everyone!
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Just curious who would be Airport's best chance for a first round win Chelsea or Tecumseh? I know Airport has matched up well with Tecumseh in recent years. Not sure if this year's Tecumseh is that good or the product of a weak schedule and Chelsea doesn't appear as strong as recent years.
That is a good question. I think both games would be tough to win. Tecumseh and Chelsea play each other this week, so you will have your answer.
I do expect that game to come down to the wire, so maybe you wont have your answer. Chelsea seems to be more defense oriented, where as Tecumseh has the better offense.
Thanks Gary for your explanation and nice presentation.
I don’t get the playoff calculation at all, though I understand the reason and purpose.
How could Flat Rock get in by beating 3 teams with a combined record of 5-13 ? They have not beaten anyone yet that is decent this season.
Sounds like the MHSAA has gone to extreme the other way now.
Just my thoughts anyway.
Bears have no path?
4-5 there is an outside shot.
Besides that it is absurd that a possible 2-7 SMCC gets in.
Thanks for your work
Jefferson: at 4-5, they would rank in the 40's. Top 32 make it. Non league D6(Onsted)and D7(Mason) opponents hurt.
SMCC: Few teams in D7 have the schedule SMCC does. Like maybe 2(Lumen and Loyola) High school football is not an apples to apples thing.
If team A plays a much tougher schedule that team B, meaning higher division and all, shouldnt there be some reward for that?
Or is it just line up a bunch of cupcakes and win by 50? I mean, there has to be some sort of balance right?
Weak schedule, go 6-3 and make it in.
Strong schedule go 3-6 and don't make it in.
Does this make it fair for everyone?
It certainly doesnt mean the 6-3 team is better. Often times they are not.
Take a look around D7, tell me SMCC isnt one of the top 32. If you know your stuff, there is no way you could.
Why should a D7 team be kept from making the D7 playoffs by losing to teams in Division 3-4-5? AKA the Huron League.
The MHSAA didnt think the above scenario was fair and threw in a balanced formula to reward those teams who play tough schedules. Every team in the MHSAA plays with this formula. This formula was made so teams dont try and line up games they can automatically win. They made this formula, so teams would not be afraid to play the tough teams. I dont know if it has worked out like that but it was and is the intent.
On the other hand, I understand the thought of how can a team with 2 wins qualify. They only won twice, it doesnt make sense. I understand that method of thought. It does seem weird.
There were several teams at 6-3 last year that did not make it in. So that is the flip side. Those teams would need to schedule tougher out of league games. Teams nowadays know what they need to do.
The Ad's, the coaches understand how this all works and should schedule accordingly. See Riverview scheduling Monroe. See Flat Rock scheduling larger division teams. SMCC has always scheduled tough out of league games. Iron sharpens iron.. and if you are willing to abide by that method of thought, iron sharpens your chance of making the playoffs... and winning once you get there.
I clearly see what you're saying and I agree 100%.i appreciate the info.go Vikings.
I agree Gary, scheduling Warren Collegiate who very well could end up in the regionals or semis of D6 vs. Constantine or Clinton, and Ecorse who could come into their game with SMCC 7-1 or 8-0.
SMCC isn't out of the woods yet though. They have a battle on their hands Friday night with Huron and anyone who thinks their game with Jefferson is a gimme win should see last year's game. Ecorse doesn't have a strong resume despite their win/loss record won't be a pushover as they will be bigger and faster than the Falcons. The Falcons advantage is they get to spend the next 3 weeks at Navarre Field.
Being a fan of Monroe County football, I would love to see a Erie Mason-SMCC matchup in the first round. Mason has an explosive offense and size up front.
Good stuff Gary! All in all I think this has been an interesting and entertaining season thus far. Some important games on the schedule this week. Good luck to all the teams in the area.
Great info Gary, Thanks!
Nice work Gary. The work you put in to keep us all informed and interested is appreciated.
Thanks Gary.
HL fan