Each week, as the playoffs get closer, we will do a playoff outlook for all our teams that are still mathematically alive. For 2019, 6 wins will auto qualify you for post season play. SMCC plays an 8 game schedule so they have qualified with 5 wins. A large number of 5 win teams will make it in this year, expected to be 48-50 teams. The largest number since the MHSAA has gone to this format. With that said, if your team ends up at 5-4, they will have a very good chance at making the playoffs.
It is important to keep in mind, a team’s division is not determined until after week 9. The divisions listed below are where your team falls if the playoffs started today. In a few cases this could change from week to week(SMCC, Whiteford) and maybe a couple other. 10 of our 16 teams are still alive. Here are those 10 team’s current situation.
DIVISION 1
Monroe Trojans (3-4)
Monroe kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a victory over the River Rats of Huron. Same as last week, the Trojans need to win out to make the playoffs. I think at 5-4, Monroe would have enough playoff points to make it in. Their destiny is in their own hands.
Playoff Points: 46.714
Possible first round: Plymouth, Saline, Woodhaven, Belleville
DIVISION 2
Temperance Bedford Kicking Mules (5-2)
Remaining games: @ Monroe, @ Coldwater
Best Possible Finish: 6-3/7-2
PPP: 70.444/84.777 (Division 2)
Outlook: Bedford passed the first of their three remaining road tests to put their record at 5-2. A win over Monroe would bump their PPP to 70.444. Getting a win over Coldwater, who currently sits at 6-1, could bump the PPP to 84.777, which would guarantee a home game.
Possible Round 1 Opponents: Livonia Franklin, Wyandotte, Detroit King, Farmington, Oak Park, Dexter, Jackson, South Lyon, North Farmington
DIVISION 3
Riverview Pirates (5-2)
The Pirates, with one more victory would secure themselves a spot in the playoffs for the 6th time in 7 season. This would seem to be a must win this week for Riverview as a good Thurston team awaits in week 9. If the Pirates were to finish the season at 5-4, I am not sure they would make it in. Winning this week is huge for their playoff aspirations.
Playoff Points: 62.286
Possible first round: Allen Park, Carlson, Trenton
Gibraltar Carlson Marauders (5-2)
Remaining Games: Lincoln Park, Wyandotte
Best Possible Finish: 6-3/7-2
PPP: 67.335/79.112 (Division 3)
Outlook: Carlson should lock up a playoff spot with a win over Lincoln Park. Finishing 6-3 puts their PPP at 67.335, but with Wyandotte’s loss to Allen Park, their potential high PPP drops down to 79.112. It will still be enough for at least one home game. Home-field advantage could be key if the Marauders wind up in Division 3, as that division is expected to be a murderer’s row.
Possible Round 1 Opponents: Trenton, Allen Park, Riverview, Garden City, Redford Thurston, River Rouge
DIVISION 4
Carleton Airport Jets (5-2)
The Jets have a huge opportunity in front of them this week as far as a 6th win and playoff points go. A victory over 7-0 Milan would guarantee them a spot in post season play. Even with a loss, Melvindale waits in week 9, Airport would be heavily favored in that game.
Playoff Points: 60.714
Possible first round: Milan, Chelsea
Milan Big Reds (7-0)
The Big Reds keep on trucking as they look to secure a home playoff game in week 10. An outright HL title is on the line tonight @Airport.
Playoff Points: 88.000
Possible first round: Summit Academy, Airport
DIVISION 5
Dundee Vikings (4-3)
Remaining Games: @ Erie Mason, Hillsdale.
Best Possible Finish: 5-4/6-3
PPP: 49.114/62.447
Outlook: The Vikings took care of their own business with a 43-6 thrashing of Columbia Central last week. But they also got some help in the bonus points category, as Stockbridge defeated Perry in Week 7. That helped bump their PPP to 49.114 with a 5-4 finish (NOTE: it could be as high as 50.670 if Ida wins out). The Vikings will face already-eliminated Erie Mason on Friday before hosting an unbeaten Hillsdale in Week 9. Should the Vikings knock off the Hornets, their PPP will likely reach 62.447 (64.003 with Ida wins). Dundee’s fate could also weigh on whether Hillsdale is in D5 or D6
Possible Round One Opponents: Hillsdale, Onsted, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard, Olivet, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Detroit Henry Ford, Marine City.
Ida Bluestreaks (3-4)
Remaining Games: @ Onsted, Blissfield
Best Possible Finish: 5-4
PPP: 49.444 (5-4 finish) (Division 5)
Outlook: Ida’s streak of six consecutive playoff appearances is now in serious jeopardy after a loss to Hillsdale. I have their PPP at 49.444, with the only hopes for improvement are wins by Lake Fenton, which don’t appear too likely. Ida finishes the season with a road trip to Onsted, and a visit from Blissfield. Both are 5-2. Even if they win out, the Blue Streaks’ fate could also rest on which division Hillsdale gets placed in.
Possible Round One Opponents: Hillsdale, Olivet, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Detroit Henry Ford, Marine City.
DIVISION 6
Monroe Saint Mary Catholic Central Falcons (6-1)
Week 8 will mark the end of the regular season for the Falcons. Three home playoff games are on the line tonight @ Jefferson. A couple things depend on that but it is surely a possibility.
Playoff Points: 78.571
Possible first round: Detroit Osborne, Blissfield
DIVISION 8
Ottawa Lake Whiteford Bobcats (4-3)
Remaining Games: Britton-Deerfield, Summerfield
Best Possible Finish: 6-3
PPP: 50.445 (Division 8)
Outlook: Whiteford likely won’t get a home game in Round 1 after a loss to Clinton. Winning out to reach 6-3 doesn’t appear too daunting, but keep in mind that Week 8 opponent Britton-Deerfield upset Royal Oak Shrine Catholic, who was ranked number 10 in Division 7. The Bobcats close the season with Summerfield, who is now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
Possible Round One Opponents: Lenawee Christian, Addison, Sand Creek, Detroit Southeastern, Detroit Public Safety Academy, Pittsford
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Well....Monroe had another fine season lol Gary...smh...maybe next year?? Snorts N Giggles.
Tough for this Milan fan to see Chelsea now projected to drop down to D4. Four 7-0 teams in D4 and two of them look to be matched up in the same district with 7-0 Country Day looming at the regionals. Milan may run the table and only get one home playoff game as a result. That's a tough draw.
The Big Reds still have to take care of business, though, to put them in the best position possible for the playoffs. Both Chelsea and Milan will take on 1-6 Tecumseh, but Milan has to take on Airport while Chelsea has winless Ann Arbor Skyline. Airport on the road will be a tough one, but it's those tough games that prepare you for a postseason run.
Also, late season games between potential playoff opponents are always interesting. Neither team may absolutely need this game but I'm sure both want it. How much will each team show the other? What will they keep in their back pocket for the potential rematch?
There are many 3 loss teams in Snooze2you scenarios in all divisions. If you look at their schedules many will lose a 4th or 5th game making them not eligible for the playoffs. If that remains true, all the borderline division teams will move up or down depending. They will try to fill the Division 8 and 7 first with 5-4 teams. there are also several 8 game teams playing the system because they can get in with 4 wins. State needs to step up and stop this. So these next two weeks are critical to where teams fall at in regards to divisions. When you look at schedules for those comparing D6 and D7 the D7 teams are stronger by strength of schedule and points this year.
In regards to which division is tougher.
D7 is a bit top heavy. JLC, PW and NL are very very good teams. SMCC and Ravenna would compete very nicely with those teams.
The rest of D7, Cassopolis, Clinton, Schoolcraft and the like, match up nicely with D6, Iron Mountain, Ithaca, Collegiate, MCGL, Hillsdale and so on.
The divisions are more even than they appear but I do give D7 a nod.
Most of that is correct.
Division only comes in to play when all 256 teams have been identified. They go by CLASS when determining who will make it in of the 5-4 or 4-4 teams. If they need say 48 teams to fill the 256 with a 5-4 or 4-4 record. They will divide by 4 to fill the 4 classes(A-B-C-D). 48 divided by 4 is 12. They will look at each Class separately. The 12 highest playoff point totals of each Class will make it in. Now you have your 256 teams. They then will divide those by the 8 divisions, giving us 8, 32 teams divisions. The highest enrollment will be D1 on down.
To add that to that..
There wont be 12 Class D teams with a 5-4 or 4-4 record. Let's say there are only 8 of those teams. which leaves 4 spots left open. Class A will get 1 extra team, as will class B and C. That covers 3 of the 4 needed. The one left over will go to class A again. So the above scenario will result is Class A getting 14 teams with 5-4 and 4-4, Class B with 13, Class C with 13 and Class D with 8.
14+13+13+8= 48.
CC needs to stay in D6. D7 is a death trap for them. D7 has Clinton, Lumen Crisit, and PW, the team CC played a couple years ago first. D6 only has Ithaca, who lost a regular season game, which there league is not that good usually, so that should tell you something. Also, the muskegon team that is usually solid. CC wouldn't have to see either of these teams until the semifinals or finals. I use snooze2you.com to see where team will be playing @ good website.
If Hillsdale stays in D6, a district could be comprised of SMCC, Blissfield and Hillsdale. That is a very tough district. The Regional final could maybe be Montrose, semi-final possibility could be Constantine and the final would be Ravenna, Ithaca or MCGL. That is not an easy road. ZERO easy games.
Lumen Christie looks to be as good as ever this year and CC would likely see them in a regional at their place...very tough to win that one. Won't argue that Blissfield and Hillsdale will be very tough but Div 6 looks a little better for that reason. I hear the local Ithica folks know they are very overrated this year...definitely not 1/2 in the State. Probably won't make it out of their District is what I'm told. Don't care for the implication by @George Wells that teams playing only 8 games are "playing the system". Truth is no one wants to play CC in week 9 in case they still need a victory. CC would rather be playing than watching in week 9...truth! Unusual situation for the coaches to practice for a week with no opponent in mind. Good luck to all the teams that make it to the playoffs this year!!
Lumen Christi is gonna be in D7
Yes, D7 appears to be tougher than D6. Ravenna is probably the best team in D6 from the "west" side, not Ithaca.
Airport is 5-2..........just saying.
thank you
Gary which way does Hillsdale look like it’s going to fall 5 or 6? Snooze has had them in 6?
Too tough to call really. Things will be up in the air for them all the way until after week 9.