Categories: Uncategorized

2018 Playoff Outlook and Other Ephemera

D1

Monroe has what will most likely be a very tough district. Possible teams will be Fordson, Saline, Belleville, Woodhaven. Escape from that gauntlet and the likes of Cass Tech most likely awaits. Best case, win out and maaaaybe get a home game. Although at 8-1 it is very possible they do not get a home game. This week vs Saline will be a playoff type game which will be a nice prep for the playoffs. I would anticipate Coach Notario is treating it as such.

D2

Bedford, if they win out, they are in. I have them near the 60 playoff point mark at 5-4 and that should be enough. Possible playoff match-ups are Wyandotte, Crestwood, Franklin, Detroit MLK.

D3

Riverview will be in a district with the downriver schools. View must win out to get a home game. They will open with AP(the original AP), either home or away. Then a rematch most likely awaits with OAC. From there Rouge will most likely be there waiting. Are these games winnable? I think so. Win out.. stay healthy and lean on last year’s experience both as players and coaching staff.

Carlson is in a position if they win out, to host 3 home playoff games. They, like Riverview, will be in the district full of teams from downriver. Probable opponents, Trenton, Allen Park, Riverview, River Rouge. I like the Maurader’s chances here. Round 2 vs Riverview is definitely a possibility. I think both teams would welcome this T vs T showdown.

D4

Milan’s possible district may include Farmington Hills Harrison. They are on the border currently of D3 and 4. Other possible match-ups include Country Day, Cranbrook and Cody. That is a winnable district especially if FHH moves up to D3. Win out and a home game is possible.

Airport is still mathematically alive for a playoff bid at 3-4, but they have no
room for error with games at Milan and home against Tecumseh to close out the
regular season.

In
short, the Jets have a shot if they win out, but they could use some help to
give them a better chance. Jets’ fans should be rooting for teams like Monroe,
Flat Rock, and SMCC to win out, as wins by those teams will provide much-needed
bonus points.

If
Airport wins out, their playoff point average will be at least 50.668. The
lowest total in Class B last season was 50.333 by Madison Heights Lamphere.
The highest the Jets could have is 51.779.

Possible
Opponents: Detroit Country Day, Milan, Cody

D5

Grosse Ile, win out and the island may see 3 home playoff games, which would be huge. Possible early round match-ups are, Osborne, Denby, Harper Woods, Robichaud, Marine City, Lutheran North. Denby and HW are tough contests but are winnable. I like GI’s chances here, this week vs View will be a great playoff type atmosphere and should prepare both teams well. Something of note, GI currently sits at the very top of D5, it is very likely they move up to D4.

Ida needs one more win to clinch a spot, as they currently sit at 5-2. The Blue
Streaks host Onsted and travel to Blissfield to end the regular season.

The
Blue Streaks aren’t likely to get much more in terms of bonus points from the
non conference opponents, as Jefferson is headed toward a winless season, and
Lake Fenton would have to pull a huge upset over Williamston or Jackson. Ida’s
best LCAA win right now is over Dundee, so even though fans may not like it,
rooting for Dundee to win out helps Ida. A win over a six-win Blissfield team
would help towards seeding.

A home game would be
a remote possibility, but it’s highly likely Ida starts on the road.

Possible
Opponents: Lansing Catholic, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Almont, Macomb
Lutheran North, Marine City, Ovid-Elsie, Grosse Ile, Detroit Osborn, Detroit
Denby

Dundee is in a precarious spot, as they currently sit at 4-3. Much like
Airport, they need to win their final games against Erie Mason and at Hillsdale.

What
hurts the Vikings is weak non conference opponents. Ann Arbor Huron looks
headed to another winless season, and Stockbridge has only one winnable game
left against Parchment. That means slim pickings in terms of bonus points. The
Vikings wins in LCAA play don’t offer much help either, as Hudson and Onsted
are expected to finish 3-6.

In
short, a projected playoff point average of 44.558 (with five wins) won’t be
enough to get them in the Division 5 bracket. The vikings will have win out,
and that means pulling off a huge upset at Hillsdale, to get six wins and an
automatic bid. That would give them a projected PPA of 50.780.

Possible
Opponents: Grosse Ile, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Almont, Ida

SMCC is in line for possibly 2 home playoff games. Possible early round match-ups include, Cabrini, Riverview Richard, Sand Creek. An interesting aspect of D7 this year is whether or not Whiteford will be in the division. As we sit now, they are in D7 and could be a district final foe for the Falcons. I think most want to see that game. That is something to keep an eye on.

D7/8

Whiteford.The
Bobcats have already clinched at 7-0, and finish out the season with a visit
from Clinton and a trip to Britton-Deerfield.

The
bulk of Whiteford’s bonus points is coming from a win over Blissfield, and more
are likely on the way with a win over Clinton. Having one of either Sand Creek
or Summerfield win out would be a benefit as well. Bobcat fans should be
rooting for Blissfield to beat Ida in Week 9.

The
good news: I fully expect Whiteford to win out and reach a PPA of 76.444, which
would all but guarantee home-field advantage through the District round. The
bad news: Whiteford is expected to be moved up to a more rugged Division 7. The
road to a repeat looks a lot tougher.

Possible Opponents: Allen Park Cabrini, Riverview
Gabriel Richard, Madison Heights Bishop Foley, Sand Creek, SMCC.

Summerfield. At
4-3, the Bulldogs need a win to stay alive. They close the season with a visit
from Sand Creek and travel to Morenci.

Summerfield
doesn’t have much in terms of bonus points, as Erie Mason has won one game all
season, and a loss to Pittsford will only provide a maximum bonus point average
of 0.778. The Bulldogs’ best win in TCC play is currently Whitmore Lake, who I
expect to finish 4-5. A win over Adrian Madison will get a few more bonus
points, but not much.

This
Friday’s game against Sand Creek looms large for the Bulldogs. A loss, and
their PPA can from 38.447 to 38.558, which could be enough to get them in the
Division 8 bracket. A win, and that jumps to a projection of 47.668 to 47.779.
The Bulldogs would be better suited winning out.

Possible
Opponents: Pittsford, Lenawee Christian, Reading, Detroit Public Safety Academy, Whiteford.

Gary Hauf

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View Comments

Anonymous says:

October 19, 2018 at 6:40 pm

Could MHS beat Woodhaven? Maybe...but they will not beat any other teams that you mentioned...that...is for sure.
Chris Schultz says:

October 12, 2018 at 4:38 pm

If the enrollment continues to dwindle the Catholic League or TCC would be a good option.
Anonymous says:

October 12, 2018 at 2:33 pm

and where would SMCC go? The LCAA or TCC isn't going to take them. Catholic league would not be good for other sports. Independent would be a nightmare.
Anonymous says:

October 12, 2018 at 1:59 pm

As for the downriver league vs Huron. I really think the top 4 DR and the top 4 Huron are all pretty equal. I think the talent is pretty equal with a slight edge to Carlson who has had a rare thing in back to back classes with D1 kids. But overall anyone of those teams could beat anyone on any given night.
Gary Hauf says:

October 12, 2018 at 1:53 pm

With open enrollment. Not a bad idea.
Anonymous says:

October 12, 2018 at 1:25 pm

SMCC should leave the Huron League and Trenton should join. All Public school league then. Apples to Apples.
Anonymous says:

October 12, 2018 at 12:16 am

LOLOLOLOLOL. Whiteford is defending state champs. SMCC is a long way from that possibility this year. Whiteford would definitely beat SMCC.
Anonymous says:

October 11, 2018 at 11:39 pm

I think people forgot why the downriver league formed. The mega had school traveling all over metro Detroit and at the time gas prices were almost $4 a gallon. Downriver league was formed to keep travel minimal because busing was so expensive. Zero chance Trenton ever leaves.
Gary Hauf says:

October 11, 2018 at 10:18 pm

What Chris said plus you get 1 point for every win the teams you lose to have. That too is divided by 9.
Anonymous says:

October 11, 2018 at 10:17 pm

So what your saying is it would be better for Riverview to go to the DRL and beat up on those teams to get more PP??
I know you’ve seen that league it’s beyond bad except for a couple of decent teams